I've been thinking a lot about the Middle East lately. Entirely coincidental to current events, I've been reading a lot of books by thought leaders from the Muslim world, hoping to understand more about the (historically recent) precarious balance of Islam and democracy. This reading has sent me to Benazir Bhutto, who no doubt is sending cheers of joy from the beyond for Egypt and Tunisia.
In her book 'Reconciliation', Benazir Bhutto systematically dissects the influence the West has had on these Middle Eastern and North African dictatorships. Ms. Bhutto paints a picture vastly different than any Westerner could learn from a textbook or the media. She shows the contradictory stances on democracy the US, Britain and France have had to advance their own political and economic gains. I tend to think it might not be the Western world's place to bring democracy to other nations. However, it's certainly not our place to oppose or suppress the spread of democratic institutions, and especially not to provide assistance to oppressive regimes. Ms. Bhutto's aim is not to throw the West under the bus. On the contrary. Her point is to unveil the twisted systems that have led up to this point, and illustrate how Middle East countries can live in harmony with democracy, the West, and Islam.
Here's one tiny example in a long and complex relationship between the West and Middle East: The United States worked with the Pakistan Intelligence Service in Afghanistan during the Cold War to help conquer Soviet invasions. This relationship developed into full support of several Afghan rebel groups, including one led by the religious zealot named Gulbuddin Hekmatyar. While Hekmatyar was outspoken about his disklike for Soviets, he was equally anti-Western. Despite this, the US showered Hekmatyar with funds, training, and high tech arms (including the effective Singer antiaircraft missiles). After the Soviets pulled out of Afghanistan, the US celebrated success, ignoring the fact that it had empowered and enabled known democracy-haters. The US packed up and left the now war-torn country, not assisting with any of the rebuilding of political systems or infrastructure it had invested billions into tearing apart. This strengthened the voraciousness of the mujahideen coalition, giving them a common hatred around which they could organize. I'll skip a couple of chapters, and tell you that the end game resulted in the creation and growth of the Taliban. And so, in our eagerness to shut down the Communists during the Cold War, we spawned and fed our next enemies. How will our assistance (or lack thereof) play into new political systems in the Middle East and North Africa?
When the protests began in Egypt, the United States, had it not needed to protect its relationship with Mubarak, should have thrown its full weight and public support behind the protests. But you saw how that panned out. Instead, we saw wishy washy statements coming from the White House, intended not to offend the government.
Which brings me to Saudi Arabia. While the US has interests in Egypt, these pale in comparison to the dependency we have on the Saudi government. We depend on full access to pipelines, reserves, and infrastructure. For this, we also need a level of predictability in our governmental relations. The Saudis most certainly deserve the same level of democracy that we and these other countries demand. But how will the White House react when (and I do believe this is when, not if) these protests begin? Will our unrivaled access to cheap and dirty oil be compromised with the rise of rebel groups overthrowing the government?
If our access to Saudi Arabian oil is threatened, in any way, I'm very concerned about the environmental consequences which may unfold. Without our constant supply of cheap, dirty oil, we'll be forced to look for oil elsewhere - even within our own continent. And the oil that is available here is significantly harder to drill and refine, making it exponentially more energy intense. This oil includes the tar sands reserves in the Boreal forest in Alberta, or coal-to-liquid technology in the South. Both of these fuels are equivalent to a car spinning its wheels on ice - you're using way too much energy to get very little distance.
This type of last minute fire drill is very unfortunate. We've seen this coming. We've known we need to invest in clean domestic energy for decades now, but have let our own politics get in the way of something that is in our own best interests. Jon Stewart has a tragic its-funny-because-its-true monologue on this failed energy plan, one administration after another.
What really chaps my hide here is that I find myself not knowing whether to hope for Saudi independence or not. I hate that my country's lack of planning will affect the Saudis and their bid for democracy. I hate that one nation's triumph might mean terrible energy and environmental choices here.
So Saudi Arabia, do what you will. We are going to have our hands full of tough choices in the days after your impending success.
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